Vegas Suds Lines of the Week

By Vegas Suds

Ok, you saw Atlantic City Andy G. release his STATSOMETER predictions for Week 7 just yesterday. And you have seen our Stats Guru John R. give his detailed stats breakdown. 

While I like stats to a certain extent in determining trends, I think people overuse numbers or rely on them too much. Numbers can lie. Eyes do not lie. And sometimes the eyes can catch what the numbers miss or misrepresent. 

(NOTE: This is not a knock on Andy or John. They are just messengers. Do not kill the messenger! My point is that the substance is wrong. PS. Am I the only one who thought the CBS show NUMBERS had a ridiculous premise? I am surprised the show lasted as long as it did!)

So in my everlasting goal to be the anti-stats guys to a certain extent, I am going to continue to use Atlantic City Andy's lines to make play against the spread to show you how relying simply on numerical analysis can result in epic failures (see Washington Capitals for side thesis proof).

LAST WEEK

I took Streetsharks + 2 1/2 

REASONING: The "Numbers" Spread as suggested by Stats Analysis was too high. I thought Sharks were trending up and Scabs do not blow teams out.

RESULT: I won --- barely but I won (Sharks lost by 2) 

THIS WEEK

1) LOCK OF THE WEEK (OFFICIAL PLAY)

I love, love, love 2 Jacks No Coke - 1.5 goals against The Mossassins. 

REASONING: I think 2 Jacks No Coke is simply the better team. The Moosassins deserve all the credit in the world for their success this season with at least half of the roster who has never played hockey before. I think the veteran 2JNC is simply the wrong matchup and the newbies will be exposed for their inexperience this Sunday. Take 2JNC every day of the week and thrice on Sundays!

2) SPOT PLAY A (UNOFFICIAL PLAY but a Game I think the line is wrong)

Let me get this straight --- The Babylon Warriors have won all their games except one by ONE goal. Yet they are 3+ goals favorite against Greenback Boogies??? Does that sound logical to you?

REASON TO PLAY: Warriors do not blow teams out. So does it not make sense to take the Greenback Boogies + 3 goals? The Boogies have to lose by 4 goals or more for you to lose! Remember in the long run, you win with the odds in your favor or when you take advantage of an incorrect market. If this game was played 10 times, I would venture to say the outcome would be in my favor a majority of the time.

REASON THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PLAY: I do think that this is another good matchup in terms of the Warriors offense getting "well" and "exploding" against the Achilles Heel of the Boogies --- backend. This is the game where I COULD see the Warriors win going away.

3) SPOT PLAY B (UNOFFICIAL PLAY but another Game where I think the line is wrong)

Let me get this straight --- The Snakes Eyes are just two points behind the Puck Buddies and can actually vault over them in the standing this Sunday with a regulation win. YET, StatOTron has them OVER 5 goal underdogs against the Puck Buddies this Sunday. Are you kidding me? So Snake Eyes have to lose by 6 goals or more for you to lose if you take them! I need to call MGM Casino to see if they will allow me to wager on this one, folks! Remember in the long run, you win with the odds in your favor or when you take advantage of an incorrect market. If this game was played 10 times, I would venture to say the outcome would be in my favor a majority of the time.

REASON TO PLAY: Snake Eyes may not be as good as Puck Buddies but I don't think these teams are 5 goals apart on a given day!

REASON THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL PLAY: Puck Buddies can blow out teams when they get on a roll so there is some risk. But 5 goals is too high. Worth a spot play (unofficially)!