The post where PRO and REC collide

By Andy G.

In our last post, we talked about what a 70-game season would look like if PRO and REC were split. This post is more along the lines of what you'd really wonder: if PRO and REC were combined in a 30-game season. Why 30? It's a nicer number than 15.

So what was the PRO vs REC differential? How would I account for the fact that, say, the Babylon Warriors would not be a top-four PRO team, and the Untouchables certainly wouldn't finish last in REC? After some trial and error, I decided to take the 70-game results from earlier as a base.

However, each PRO team had half of their goals against moved to their goals for column!

This way, every single PRO team would have a Pythagorean of at least .500 (the smallest being the Untouchables now with a healthy .591). It also meant that the Warriors and Jacks were way behind the curve all of a sudden, while teams like L2T and Scorpions were not ahead of any PRO squads.

As mentioned before, ties occurred in this DCHL season at an 18% clip. In order to simulate that, I had to take the log5 winning probability and translate it into points over two games. I did so as follows:

80-100%: the team won both games
70-80%: the team won one and tied the other
30-46% & 54-70%: the team split the two games, winning and losing
46-54%: the team tied twice
20-30%: the team lost one and tied the other
0-20%: the team lost both games

AND SO, without further ado, here's what everyone's record would be in a 30-game, double-round-robin format. (No, I didn't do scores. That's for another day.)

1. Puck Buddies, 28-1-1
2. Funkmaster Redux, 27-2-1
3. All Blacks, 25-3-2
4. Ducks, 22-6-2
5. Snake Eyes, 20-7-3
6. Blood Red, 17-10-3
7. Babylon Warriors, 13-13-4
8. Two Jacks No Coke, 12-15-3
9. Five Minutes Majors, 10-16-4
10. Scabs, 9-16-5
11. Moosassins, 10-17-3
12. Untouchables, 9-18-3
13. Scorpions, 8-18-4
14. License to Thrill, 8-20-2
15. Greenback Boogies, 0-28-2
16. Streetsharks, 0-28-2

It should be noted that, under this formula, PRO teams took 88.3% of the points from REC teams. This number is undoubtedly high, but I'm willing to live with it.

So what does this mean for next season? Well, first, it's clear that if the Warriors and Jacks make the Div II finals, they should accept promotion. Majors and Untouchables need to drop to REC, but the Major have a very good chance of returning. The Scabs and Moosassins are more likely to promote in the 2014 Winter Season than the Untouchables are. (What a dilemma for John Romps, isn't it?)

But I'm getting ahead of myself. Let's do the playoffs for this season first.