By Andy G. and his trusty, rusty Predict-o-Tron
You asked for it; you got it! The Home Office in Vienna is a little amused by the clamoring, but never let it be said we do not deliver. Eventually.
NOTE: Next week, the Predict-O-Tron will include the Average Results for both Pro and Rec; this means it will take each period, do its normal calculations, and play the round-robin all over again. Rounding everything as needed, every period will be simmed, and a new standings that the Home Office feels would be closer to average will be released. See if your team had bad breaks!
12 PM -- Blood Red (1-4-1) vs Untouchables (0-6)
GOALS: BR 5.469, UT 1.032
SHOTS: BR 29.841, UT 13.833
POTENTIAL RESULTS: Blood Red can jump to #5 with a win and a Ducks loss to the Majors. Anything else and they will be #6. No matter what, Untouchables will be #8.
THOUGHTS: My big wonder right now is if any Rec team could do better than the Untouchables, or if all teams would be getting killed like this. What happens going forward with the Jacks, Warriors, or whomever promotes? Meanwhile, Blood Red are in a comfortable position which should see them through this game... but they're hoping HARD for a Majors upset, because the top three are ahead of the bottom five by a bit.
1 PM -- Babylon Warriors (4-0-2) vs Greenback Boogies (0-5-1)
GOALS: Warriors 5.472, Greenbacks 2.239
SHOTS: Warriors 27.452, Greenbacks 13.876
POTENTIAL RESULTS: If the Warriors win, they are the #1 seed in Rec. Any other result and the Jacks can pass them by bettering it (Warriors own the tiebreaker). The Greenbacks, should they win, will take the #7 by outpointing L2T, who is 1 point ahead plus the tiebreaker. Otherwise, they are the #8 seed and get a rematch with the Warriors.
THOUGHTS: This might as well be a playoff preview here. The Greenbacks are not without stars, and in fact if I were doing an All-Star lineup, they'd have more than one player on Team Rec. The big problem is that their defense has let them down repeatedly, particularly in the first two periods when they have save percentages below .760. Obviously, the way they'll win is by outscoring their opponents, but the Warriors never let you get shots off, let alone get them in the net.
2 PM -- Scabs (3-1-2) vs Scorpions (2-3-1)
GOALS: Scabs 3.797, Scorpions 2.595
SHOTS: Scabs 19.253, Scorpions 28.094
POTENTIAL RESULTS: The Scabs are in a virtual deadlock with the Moosassins (we'll see them later) for third and fourth. Every goal in those games will count big, as it looks like Goals Allowed is going to decide the tiebreak. Scorpions are the #5 seed, but could fall to #6 if they lose and the Streetsharks win later. No matter which team wins, it's possible the two sides will rematch in the quarterfinals.
THOUGHTS: Well, let's get this out of the way right now. We're dealing with a superior goalie for the Scabs, and absolute All-Star in BOTH divisions, and he's a guy who is capable of stealing games. This is one of those games he could steal. If Scorpions games follow a pattern, this one is easy to figure out: scoreless first period, Scabs own the second, Scorpions tie it up in the third, late winner for the Scabs. There is one shining light: when the Scorpions defense is on, it's ON. They allow 1 goal in their 2 wins. Get this game on YouTube, Suds!
3 PM -- 2 Jacks No Coke (5-1) vs. The Moosassins (3-1-2)
GOALS: Jacks 4.128, Moosassins 2.515
SHOTS: Jacks 19.726, Moosassins 19.217
POTENTIAL RESULTS: The Jacks need to outpoint the Babylon Warriors for the #1 seed; by the time this game is played, they may know they're locked in at #2. That would be good news for the Moosassins, who need all the points and goals they can get against the Jacks to vault over the Scabs to #3; one of those teams will be #4.
THOUGHTS: There's something about Moosassins games that are tough on the neutrals. They don't allow shots, they don't take shots, and most of the play is bogged in the neutral zone. What could help matters a bit is that the Jacks are a team with incredible shooters that shoots at a 20% rate in the first period and an astonishing 30%+ in the second. If they can force the Moosassins out of the shell, things could open up.
4 PM and 5 PM -- X Division; beyond the scope of this preview.
6 PM -- Snake Eyes (3-1-2) vs. Puck Buddies (4-1-1)
GOALS: Snakes 1.053, Buddies 6.167
SHOTS: Snakes 16.836, Buddies 39.405
POTENTIAL RESULTS: If there's an upset here and the Snake Eyes win, they would basically be the #2 seed barring some freaky result in the Funks/Blacks game. A loss and they would finish fourth. The Puck Buddies would be the #1 seed with a regulation win; anything less and they open the door for a drop. A Snake Eyes win would actually put them ahead of Puck Buddies in the final standings.
THOUGHTS: So let's examine a Snake Eyes game: they like to get the most out of their few shots; they rely on their goaltender to make saves; their passing is targeted at the same few forwards; they don't like to run the ball or speed the pace up. Basically, this team could not be more ill-suited for the Puck Buddies' up-tempo, aggressive style. You need quality passers around the park to get good shots, and that's not where the Snake Eyes excel. They are a counter-attack team, but it requires the opponents to attack first and fail. Puck Buddies don't throw enough people forward for that to be an issue.
7 PM -- Funkmaster Redux (4-0-2) vs. All Blacks (4-1-1)
GOALS: Funks 1.952, Blacks 1.763
SHOTS: Funks 22.293, Blacks 23.481
POTENTIAL RESULTS: Any of these teams could finish anywhere from first to fourth. The winner of this game, if there is a winner, will be ranked ahead of the other (even if in a shootout). Should they end in a tie, the Funks will be the higher seed.
THOUGHTS: This is about as close as you'll get to TV-style hockey. Neither team has a glaring weakness in it, but neither team has an overwhelming best-in-the-league strength. They're just a pair of solid, well-rounded teams with star scorers who commit to defense and have goalies that won't make mistakes. This game has all the makings of a classic -- and hopefully will also be YouTubed, hint Suds -- and if any game has shootout potential, it's this one. Very close matchup.
8 PM -- Streetsharks (2-4) vs License 2 Thrill (1-5)
GOALS: Thrill 3.066, Sharks 2.268
SHOTS: Thrill 22.825, Sharks 21.681
POTENTIAL RESULTS: A regulation win by L2T and they vault the Sharks for the 6 spot. If the Boogies get a win, the Thrill stand a chance of falling to 8th. If the Sharks win, they would be favorites to jump to 5th as the Scorpions are only one point ahead and underdogs against the Scabs.
THOUGHTS: This is one of those games where you can pinpoint when the crucial time is: Period 2. Shark opponents have a .947 save percentage in the middle frame, and the Thrill shoot at 19.1% in that stanza. This is when the Thrill will make the most of their time. If they have a lead after one, watch out; if the Sharks weather the storm and are even or close to it after two, they have a shot.
9 PM -- Ducks (2-2-2) vs Five Minute Majors (1-4-1)
GOALS: Ducks 5.251, Majors 2.080
SHOTS: Ducks 21.559, Majors 22.743
POTENTIAL RESULTS: All the Ducks need is a single point to clinch 5th. The Majors with a win could get to 6th. One of those teams will be locked into position before the game begins, depending on the results of Red/UTs. In all likelihood, the Majors will finish 7th, where they stand now.
THOUGHTS: The Majors tire easily; their shots on goal difference is a cumulative +11 in period 1, +1 in period 2, and -8 in period three. To make matters worse, their third period save percentage is .745 -- that's not going to get it done on Sunday. The Ducks' style is one that plays well from ahead, so if they get an early lead, they should go home safely. First goal will be vital in this match.
THE ODDS
Blood Red -4 1/2 Untouchables (O/U: 6.5 G, 43.5 S)
Babylon Warriors -3 Greenback Boogies (O/U: 7.5 G, 41.5 S)
Scabs -1 Scorpions (O/U: 6.5 G, 47.5 S)
Two Jacks No Coke -1 1/2 Moosassins (O/U: 6.5 G, 39 S)
Puck Buddies -5 Snake Eyes (O/U: 7 G, 56 S)
Funkmaster Redux PK All Blacks (O/U: 3.5 G, 46 S)
License 2 Thrill -1 Streetsharks (O/U: 5.5 G, 44.5 S)
Ducks -3 Five Minute Majors (O/U: 7.5 G, 44.5 S)
DAILY OVER/UNDER (8 GAMES): 51 G, 362 S
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