Okay, so I finally got the Predict-O-Tron 5000(tm) fixed after the numbers caused it to explode. People who attended the Podcast know these lines, but for the rest of you, it'll be a treat. In addition to avg goals and avg shots, I'm including the most likely result of a seven-game series. BECAUSE IT'S THE PLAYOFFS.
Work continues on a special look at a 70-game pro-style season with PRO and REC separate. If I can figure out a reasonable Pro/Rec multiplier, I would give you what a 30-game, 16-team season would look like on average, with HOME and AWAY factored in (that much I can do normally). And so, from REC to PRO, blowout to contested, let's begin:
DIVISION II (REC) PLAYOFFS
[1] Babylon Warriors (18 pts) vs. [8] Greenback Boogies (2 pts)
SCORE: Warriors 7.894, Greenbacks 2.420
SHOTS: Warriors 29.836, Greenbacks 13.780
REGULAR SEASON: Week 7, Warriors win 10-4
IN A SERIES: Warriors in 4
STARS:
WARRIORS -- JP Uehlinger (9 goals, 8 assists); Jeff King (4 goals, 8 assists); Wendy Jason (3 goals, 5 assists)
GREENBACKS -- Andrew Kramer (11 goals, 3 assists); Daniel Ruberg (6 goals, 5 assists); Brennan Giuffre (1 goal, 3 assists)
THOUGHTS: It's not that the Boogies aren't capable of winning this game; it's that a lot has to go their way. Andrew and Daniel need to have dominant games. The defense needs to step up. Jason needs to have the best game of his career. And the passing has to foil the defense the Warriors love to smother teams with. The Warriors are beatable, but it hasn't happened yet; it's not likely to here either.
[2] Two Jacks No Coke (15 pts) vs. [7] Streetsharks (6 pts)
SCORE: Jacks 5.958, Sharks 1.832
SHOTS: Jacks 23.566, Sharks 21.579
REGULAR SEASON: Week 2, Jacks win 6-0
IN A SERIES: Jacks in 4
STARS:
JACKS -- Jake Smith (10 goals, 8 assists); Mike Bendner (7 goals, 2 assists); Jen Payne (2 goals, 6 assists) NOTE: Jen is a known scratch from the playoff roster due to injury.
SHARKS -- Mike Ashley (5 goals, 2 assists); Mike Stahly (4 goals, 2 assists); Brian S. (4 goals, 1 assist)
THOUGHTS: Expect that this one could be close for a period, but in the middle stanza, the Sharks unravel hard. It doesn't help that the Jacks are a team of snipers. In 7 middle frames, the Jacks outscore their opponents 15-7; the Sharks are outscored 9-2. The Sharks need to keep discipline late, as they get worse as the game goes on both in scoring and in penalties.
[3] Moosassins (14 pts) vs. [6] License 2 Thrill (6 pts)
SCORE: Moosassins 3.281, Thrill 2.114
SHOTS: Moosassins 17.464, Thrill 18.261
REGULAR SEASON: Week 3, Moose win 2-1
IN A SERIES: Moose in 6
STARS:
MOOSASSINS -- Chris Thorp (13 goals, 6 assists); Paul Jordan (3 goals, 5 assists); Keri Rapalski (2 goals, 4 assists)
THRILL -- Kirill S (6 goals, 3 assists); Chris Winkler (3 goals, 7 assists); Kenta U. (2.20 GAA, .885 Sv%)
THOUGHTS: Okay, here we have the first not-so-farfetched idea of an upset. Kirill and Chris work incredibly well together, and their connection is impossible to stop if it's clicking. On the other side, Chris Thorp IS the offense. That's not an exaggeration: among teams with at least 10 goals, he takes part in the highest percentage of his team's goals at 76%. You beat him, you beat them.
[4] Scabs (13 pts) vs. [5] Scorpions (8 pts)
SCORE: Scabs 3.105, Scorpions 1.993
SHOTS: Scabs 19.589, Scorpions 26.704
REGULAR SEASON: Week 7, 1-1 tie (Scabs won shootout)
IN A SERIES: Scabs in 7
STARS:
SCABS -- Carlos Cruz (8 goals, 2 assists); John Romps (2.14 GAA, .912 Sv%); Joe Smith (5 goals, 2 assists)
SCORPIONS -- Bryan Smalley (8 goals, 1 assist); David Altschuler (3 goals, 4 assists); Andy Goss (2.17 GAA, .895 Sv%)
THOUGHTS: Here we go again; after a duel of goalies in the regular season finale, these two Vezina contenders will face off in the quarterfinals. Scabs don't shoot as much as Scorpions, but the accuracy is on their side. We went to a shootout last time, and if both sets of stars play to their ability, we could go to overtime easily. It would still be an upset if Scorpions won, but it's the most likely of the bunch.
DIVISION I (PRO) PLAYOFFS
[1] Puck Buddies (17 pts) vs. [8] Untouchables (0 pts)
SCORE: Buddies 9.568, Untouchables 0.284
SHOTS: Buddies 53.841, Untouchables 9.516
REGULAR SEASON: Week 1, Buddies win 5-1
IN A SERIES: Buddies in 4
STARS:
BUDDIES -- Jake Berube (12 goals, 4 assists); Keri Rapalski (7 goals, 8 assists); Ryan Kelly (7 goals, 6 assists)
UNTOUCHABLES -- Tway Twele (2 goals, 2 assists); George Kunin (6.00 GAA, .817 Sv%); Fabian Muller (1 goal, 1 assist)
THOUGHTS: Do I have to say anything other than "The Puck Buddies are expected to get more goals than saves"?
[2] Funkmaster Redux (17 pts) vs. [7] Five Minute Major (4 pts)
SCORE: Funkmasters 6.432, Majors 0.722
SHOTS: Funkmasters 28.573, Majors 19.205
REGULAR SEASON: Week 1, 2-2 tie (shootout tie)
IN A SERIES: Funkmasters in 4
STARS:
FUNKMASTERS -- Keith Ingram (14 goals, 4 assists); Gena Goldbaum (1.40 GAA, .934 Sv%); Simon Kanter (1 goal, 6 assists)
MAJORS -- Todd Elling (3 goals, 3 assists); David Dlugacz (4 goals, 1 assist); Todd Van Haaren (2 goals, 1 assist)
THOUGHTS: Okay, so let's have a reality check here. Yes, in Week 1, the Majors rode to a draw with the Funks. That was basically the high point of their season, though. Check out the performances against the 1, 3, 4, and 5 seeds (which, by the way, are the Majors' last four games). Funkmasters 14, Opponents 6; Majors 1, Opponents 30. When the going gets tough, the Funks have an extra gear. The Majors? Not so much.
[3] All Blacks (13 pts) vs. [6] Blood Red (8 pts)
SCORE: Blacks 4.532, Red 1.838
SHOTS: Blacks 25.466, Red 19.196
REGULAR SEASON: Week 5, Blacks win 4-2
IN A SERIES: Blacks in 5
STARS:
BLACKS -- Mike Johnson (8 goals, 5 assists); Bill Nardi (7 goals, 5 assists); Jeff Vandenburgh (1 goal, 6 assists)
RED -- Boris Senatorov (7 goals, 5 assists); Matt Goldstein (6 goals, 2 assists); Shaun Fasbinder (4 goals, 3 assists)
THOUGHTS: This appears to be a trendy upset pick in the Podcast roundtable. There's one small problem: The Red defense isn't the best. All Blacks are great passers, and it will require the goalie to be absolutely on top of his game for there to be any chance. It's also true that the Blacks are a faster team in the offensive zone. This won't help matters.
[4] Snake Eyes (12 pts) vs. [5] Ducks (11 pts)
SCORE: Ducks 3.255, Snakes 2.524
SHOTS: Ducks 29.380, Snakes 19.110
REGULAR SEASON: Week 2, 1-1 tie (Snakes win shootout)
IN A SERIES: Ducks in 7
STARS:
SNAKES -- John Romps (2.43 GAA, .915 Sv%); Ron Zacharias (6 goals, 2 assists); Ryan Bonnette (5 goals, 3 assists)
DUCKS -- Luke Taylor (12 goals, 4 assists); Blase Etzel (5 goals, 6 assists); Josh Brooks (4 goals, 4 assists)
THOUGHTS: Let's just note something ahead of time: remove their shootout game against each other, and these two teams had identical point totals against the other 6 teams. This is easily the best matchup of the first round: the offense and speed of the Ducks against the discipline and goaltending of the Snakes. The longer this game is close, the more the goaltending matchup matters. Strategy is rather obvious: the Ducks want an early lead, and the Snake Eyes will have to weather that storm. The longer it goes, the more pressure build, and the better the favorites' chances.
LINES:
Warriors -5 1/2 Greenbacks
Jacks -4 Sharks
Moosassins -1 Thrill
Scabs -1 Scorpions
Buddies -9 1/2 Untouchables
Funkmasters -5 1/2 Majors
Blacks -2 1/2 Red
Snakes +1/2 Ducks
Work continues on a special look at a 70-game pro-style season with PRO and REC separate. If I can figure out a reasonable Pro/Rec multiplier, I would give you what a 30-game, 16-team season would look like on average, with HOME and AWAY factored in (that much I can do normally). And so, from REC to PRO, blowout to contested, let's begin:
DIVISION II (REC) PLAYOFFS
[1] Babylon Warriors (18 pts) vs. [8] Greenback Boogies (2 pts)
SCORE: Warriors 7.894, Greenbacks 2.420
SHOTS: Warriors 29.836, Greenbacks 13.780
REGULAR SEASON: Week 7, Warriors win 10-4
IN A SERIES: Warriors in 4
STARS:
WARRIORS -- JP Uehlinger (9 goals, 8 assists); Jeff King (4 goals, 8 assists); Wendy Jason (3 goals, 5 assists)
GREENBACKS -- Andrew Kramer (11 goals, 3 assists); Daniel Ruberg (6 goals, 5 assists); Brennan Giuffre (1 goal, 3 assists)
THOUGHTS: It's not that the Boogies aren't capable of winning this game; it's that a lot has to go their way. Andrew and Daniel need to have dominant games. The defense needs to step up. Jason needs to have the best game of his career. And the passing has to foil the defense the Warriors love to smother teams with. The Warriors are beatable, but it hasn't happened yet; it's not likely to here either.
[2] Two Jacks No Coke (15 pts) vs. [7] Streetsharks (6 pts)
SCORE: Jacks 5.958, Sharks 1.832
SHOTS: Jacks 23.566, Sharks 21.579
REGULAR SEASON: Week 2, Jacks win 6-0
IN A SERIES: Jacks in 4
STARS:
JACKS -- Jake Smith (10 goals, 8 assists); Mike Bendner (7 goals, 2 assists); Jen Payne (2 goals, 6 assists) NOTE: Jen is a known scratch from the playoff roster due to injury.
SHARKS -- Mike Ashley (5 goals, 2 assists); Mike Stahly (4 goals, 2 assists); Brian S. (4 goals, 1 assist)
THOUGHTS: Expect that this one could be close for a period, but in the middle stanza, the Sharks unravel hard. It doesn't help that the Jacks are a team of snipers. In 7 middle frames, the Jacks outscore their opponents 15-7; the Sharks are outscored 9-2. The Sharks need to keep discipline late, as they get worse as the game goes on both in scoring and in penalties.
[3] Moosassins (14 pts) vs. [6] License 2 Thrill (6 pts)
SCORE: Moosassins 3.281, Thrill 2.114
SHOTS: Moosassins 17.464, Thrill 18.261
REGULAR SEASON: Week 3, Moose win 2-1
IN A SERIES: Moose in 6
STARS:
MOOSASSINS -- Chris Thorp (13 goals, 6 assists); Paul Jordan (3 goals, 5 assists); Keri Rapalski (2 goals, 4 assists)
THRILL -- Kirill S (6 goals, 3 assists); Chris Winkler (3 goals, 7 assists); Kenta U. (2.20 GAA, .885 Sv%)
THOUGHTS: Okay, here we have the first not-so-farfetched idea of an upset. Kirill and Chris work incredibly well together, and their connection is impossible to stop if it's clicking. On the other side, Chris Thorp IS the offense. That's not an exaggeration: among teams with at least 10 goals, he takes part in the highest percentage of his team's goals at 76%. You beat him, you beat them.
[4] Scabs (13 pts) vs. [5] Scorpions (8 pts)
SCORE: Scabs 3.105, Scorpions 1.993
SHOTS: Scabs 19.589, Scorpions 26.704
REGULAR SEASON: Week 7, 1-1 tie (Scabs won shootout)
IN A SERIES: Scabs in 7
STARS:
SCABS -- Carlos Cruz (8 goals, 2 assists); John Romps (2.14 GAA, .912 Sv%); Joe Smith (5 goals, 2 assists)
SCORPIONS -- Bryan Smalley (8 goals, 1 assist); David Altschuler (3 goals, 4 assists); Andy Goss (2.17 GAA, .895 Sv%)
THOUGHTS: Here we go again; after a duel of goalies in the regular season finale, these two Vezina contenders will face off in the quarterfinals. Scabs don't shoot as much as Scorpions, but the accuracy is on their side. We went to a shootout last time, and if both sets of stars play to their ability, we could go to overtime easily. It would still be an upset if Scorpions won, but it's the most likely of the bunch.
DIVISION I (PRO) PLAYOFFS
[1] Puck Buddies (17 pts) vs. [8] Untouchables (0 pts)
SCORE: Buddies 9.568, Untouchables 0.284
SHOTS: Buddies 53.841, Untouchables 9.516
REGULAR SEASON: Week 1, Buddies win 5-1
IN A SERIES: Buddies in 4
STARS:
BUDDIES -- Jake Berube (12 goals, 4 assists); Keri Rapalski (7 goals, 8 assists); Ryan Kelly (7 goals, 6 assists)
UNTOUCHABLES -- Tway Twele (2 goals, 2 assists); George Kunin (6.00 GAA, .817 Sv%); Fabian Muller (1 goal, 1 assist)
THOUGHTS: Do I have to say anything other than "The Puck Buddies are expected to get more goals than saves"?
[2] Funkmaster Redux (17 pts) vs. [7] Five Minute Major (4 pts)
SCORE: Funkmasters 6.432, Majors 0.722
SHOTS: Funkmasters 28.573, Majors 19.205
REGULAR SEASON: Week 1, 2-2 tie (shootout tie)
IN A SERIES: Funkmasters in 4
STARS:
FUNKMASTERS -- Keith Ingram (14 goals, 4 assists); Gena Goldbaum (1.40 GAA, .934 Sv%); Simon Kanter (1 goal, 6 assists)
MAJORS -- Todd Elling (3 goals, 3 assists); David Dlugacz (4 goals, 1 assist); Todd Van Haaren (2 goals, 1 assist)
THOUGHTS: Okay, so let's have a reality check here. Yes, in Week 1, the Majors rode to a draw with the Funks. That was basically the high point of their season, though. Check out the performances against the 1, 3, 4, and 5 seeds (which, by the way, are the Majors' last four games). Funkmasters 14, Opponents 6; Majors 1, Opponents 30. When the going gets tough, the Funks have an extra gear. The Majors? Not so much.
[3] All Blacks (13 pts) vs. [6] Blood Red (8 pts)
SCORE: Blacks 4.532, Red 1.838
SHOTS: Blacks 25.466, Red 19.196
REGULAR SEASON: Week 5, Blacks win 4-2
IN A SERIES: Blacks in 5
STARS:
BLACKS -- Mike Johnson (8 goals, 5 assists); Bill Nardi (7 goals, 5 assists); Jeff Vandenburgh (1 goal, 6 assists)
RED -- Boris Senatorov (7 goals, 5 assists); Matt Goldstein (6 goals, 2 assists); Shaun Fasbinder (4 goals, 3 assists)
THOUGHTS: This appears to be a trendy upset pick in the Podcast roundtable. There's one small problem: The Red defense isn't the best. All Blacks are great passers, and it will require the goalie to be absolutely on top of his game for there to be any chance. It's also true that the Blacks are a faster team in the offensive zone. This won't help matters.
[4] Snake Eyes (12 pts) vs. [5] Ducks (11 pts)
SCORE: Ducks 3.255, Snakes 2.524
SHOTS: Ducks 29.380, Snakes 19.110
REGULAR SEASON: Week 2, 1-1 tie (Snakes win shootout)
IN A SERIES: Ducks in 7
STARS:
SNAKES -- John Romps (2.43 GAA, .915 Sv%); Ron Zacharias (6 goals, 2 assists); Ryan Bonnette (5 goals, 3 assists)
DUCKS -- Luke Taylor (12 goals, 4 assists); Blase Etzel (5 goals, 6 assists); Josh Brooks (4 goals, 4 assists)
THOUGHTS: Let's just note something ahead of time: remove their shootout game against each other, and these two teams had identical point totals against the other 6 teams. This is easily the best matchup of the first round: the offense and speed of the Ducks against the discipline and goaltending of the Snakes. The longer this game is close, the more the goaltending matchup matters. Strategy is rather obvious: the Ducks want an early lead, and the Snake Eyes will have to weather that storm. The longer it goes, the more pressure build, and the better the favorites' chances.
LINES:
Warriors -5 1/2 Greenbacks
Jacks -4 Sharks
Moosassins -1 Thrill
Scabs -1 Scorpions
Buddies -9 1/2 Untouchables
Funkmasters -5 1/2 Majors
Blacks -2 1/2 Red
Snakes +1/2 Ducks
No comments:
Post a Comment