Sunday, January 12, 2014

Which NHL Superstar is between these two players? Stats clearly show a winner!

The game of hockey is simple. The goal is to score more than you give up. Plus/Minus is a key stat in that endeavor. It determines whether a player or a line is truly “productive” in a winning way (net goals).

Plus−minus (+/−, plus/minus) is a statistic used to measure a player's impact on the difference between their team's total scoring versus their opponent's. In hockey, it measures a player's goal differential. With the exclusion of power play and penalty shot goals, when an even-strength or shorthanded goal is scored, the plus–minus statistic is increased by one ("plus") for those players on the ice for the team scoring the goal; the plus–minus statistic is decreased by one ("minus") for those players on the ice for the team allowing the goal. Whether or not the net is empty does not matter for purposes of plus–minus.

While the statistic officially measures a difference, it is sometimes (inaccurately) referred to as the plus−minus ratio or plus−minus rating.

While a player's plus−minus statistic is calculated for each game played, it tends to provide a more meaningful measure over a full season. The statistic is directly affected by overall team performance, influenced by both the offensive and defensive performance of the team as a whole.

The plus−minus is mainly used to examine the performance of defenders and forwards who play a defensive role, while offensive forwards are more often measured by their scoring statistics (goals and assists).

Let’s compare two NHL Superstars: Player A and Player B.  Who is better? Let’s look at several key stats/factors including plus/minus.

Player A – 45 Games Played, 20 Goals, 34 Assists, 54 Points, + 2, 6 Power Play Goals, 15 Power Play Assists, 3 Game Winning Goals

Player B – 42 Games Played, 32 Goals, 14 Assists, 46 Points, -15 , 12 Power Play Goals, 11 Power Play Assists, 4 Game Winning Goals

SIMPLE ANALYSIS:
A) Player B is the better goal scorer, clearly.
B) Player A is the better overall offensive player since he has scored more points.
C) Player A is the better overall player since he has more assists than goals and gets his teammates more “involved”. Hockey is a team game. Superstars who win championships have the ability to get their teammates involved.
D) Player A has the better +/- rating of +2. This means that Player A’s line has scored 2 more goals (during non power play situations) than they have given up. This means they are playing “winning hockey” since positive net goals correlate with winning hockey games. Simple as that. Player B is a -15 which means his line has given up 15 more goals (during non power play situations) than they have scored which is losing hockey.  Clearly Player A is the better overall player in terms of basic winning hockey.
E) So we assume that Player A plays on a better team, right? NO! Player A’s team has 17 wins, 22 regulation losses, and 7 shootout losses. Player B’s team has 22 Wins, 16 regulation losses, and 6 ties. Player B’s team is better! Does that mean he is the better player? NO! It means he plays on a winning team and STILL has “losing stats” while Player A plays on a losing team and has “winning stats”. This is what we call a “hidden stat” to determine the true worth of a player. Player A has to overcome his “poorer” team yet still have “winning stats”. He is clearly the better player when it comes to net goals --- a key stat in "winning hockey".
F) Are not power play goals important, you may ask? Well, both players’ power play points are similar so they are a wash. And both players have nearly the same amount of game winning goals. So even if you want to look at power play stats, they wash out. No edge to either player there.
G) How about how much money he makes, you may ask? In today’s sports world, a player has to be worth what he is paid. If he is not, he is poor value and can hinder the team from getting other players because he is eating up too much of the salary cap. Player A surely makes more, right? WRONG! Player A makes $5 Million. Player B makes $9 Million. Player B almost makes twice as much as Player A but is beaten by Player A in all relevant categories but one (goal scoring).

CONCLUSION: Player A is the better bargain and the better overall player. Who would you rather have as a fan or a General Manager of team? Clearly, Player A! Why would you want Player B if your goal is to win hockey games and win championships?  I would take Player A every day of the week and twice on Sundays over Player B.

Full disclosure - the stats of Player A and Player B actually belong to these two NHL Superstars

Player A = John Tavares
Player B = Alex Ovechkin

Surprised? You should not be if you REALLY are a hockey expert! ;)

1 comment:

  1. Jeff Schultz was +/- leader of the NHL in 2010? Would that have made him the most valuable player in the league that year?
    "Long-time NHL executive Brian Burke has called the NHL’s official plus-minus number a “horse shit” stat"
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2013/05/13/just-how-horse-shit-is-the-nhls-official-plus-minus-stat/

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