By Andy G.
So what do you do when you're snowed in? You fire up the Predict-O-Tron! (applause)
Yes, IMO, 1/3 of the season is enough data to enter into the algortihm. Maybe I'm wrong, but we'll find out. As always, these numbers should not be used for betting purposes or to get mad at me. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Which won't stop me from pretending it is.
GAME 1: Scabs (1-2) vs. License 2 Thrill (1-1-1)
The Predict-O-Tron says:
LTT 2.734, SCB 1.240
Shots: SCB 24.414, LTT 22.702
The main question coming into this week is where the Scabs' offense is. This is a team that relied on winning close, low-scoring games last season, then added a shooter to the mix. And yet, here they stand on 06.7% shooting percentage through three games! This is not good, and it's going to hurt them going forward.
GAME 2: Funkmaster Redux (0-3) vs. Puck University (2-0-1)
The Predict-O-Tron says:
PKU 6.844, FMR 0.907
Shots: PKU 33.251, FMR 13.708
Last season, the new teams being added to PRO meant that no team was promoted from REC, although 2 teams were still relegated. This season, there may well be a swap, as Funkmaster have shown almost no signs of life through three games. A team that has perennially been in the Final Four now looks like they may struggle to stay afloat at all. Puck U has made the smooth transition from the free-for-all of X to the more chemistry-oriented PRO side due to have incredible talent, but how long will that talent carry them? Certainly past this game.
GAME 3: Greenback Boogies (2-1) vs. Untouchables (1-2)
The Predict-O-Tron says:
GBB 3.459, UNT 2.938
Shots: UNT 23.961, GBB 22.586
This game will be played at a lot closer to a PRO pace than most, and the goalies will be tested. This is the moment we find out if the Greenbacks are a contender to move up with the additions they've had. Untouchables got everyone's attention with the big win over the Majors last week, and now they need to follow it up. Don't be too surprised if the teams end in a tie in this one.
GAME 4: Five Minute Majors (1-2) vs. Stingrays (1-1-1)
The Predict-O-Tron says:
STR 3.416, FMM 3.169
Shots: FMM 21.528, STR 16.818
Both of these teams have been similarly plagued by defensive issues; for the Stingrays, a lack of cohesion can be to blame (though we'll find out if that's a legitimate reason soon enough), but for the Majors, the problems that plagued them in PRO are still present in REC. This could be decided by periods: Stingrays allow 8 goals on 24 shots in their first periods, while the Majors allow a similar 4 on 12 shots in the second. This will be the test for both teams to see if they are capable of making noise in the playoffs; as with the previous game, a tie is definitely in play.
GAME 5: Puck Buddies (3-0) vs. All Blacks (2-1)
The Predict-O-Tron says:
PKB 5.898, ABK 2.442
Shots: ABK 30.417, PKB 18.176
Yeah, I think this one might require more detail, so here it is: the All Blacks have an incredible shot advantage on every team they've played. They average 32.7 per game at this point and are +17 per game; Puck Buddies are +6 per game by comparison. BUT, two stats hurt them. First, the scoring defense for All Blacks is deceptive, as they've given up a goal every 4.7 shots (league average of 1 every 6.03 shots); second, the Puck Buddies are INCREDIBLE at shooting, getting a goal every 4.03 shots. Given how those numbers stack up against the average, the All Blacks are in for a rude awakening. If there's any solace here, it's that numbers can lie -- this early in the season, the P-O-T is its most inaccurate.
GAME 6: Ducks (1-2) vs. DC Pravdacudas (2-1)
The Predict-O-Tron says:
DCP 5.082, DUK 4.326
Shots: DCP 27.799, DUK 24.166
This one has all the makings of a spectator game. Both teams are high-octane compared to the average, and both squads shoot a reasonable percentage. Sheer volume may be enough to overwhelm the goalkeepers in this one (although if Tom Marchegiano can duplicate his SAVE OF THE SEASON from last week, who knows), and the shooters will get their chances. Overall, though, the Pravdacudas have looked just a tad more complete as a team; their loss to Puck Buddies notwithstanding, they've adjusted well to the larger rink.
GAME 7: The Moosassins (1-2) vs. Babylon Warriors (3-0)
The Predict-O-Tron says:
BWR 4.927, TMA 1.509
Shots: BWR 20.011, TMA 15.974
Now, to be fair to all those involved, there is a huge caveat here: the Moosassins' goaltending is grossly misrepresented, since one of their three games was played by a volunteer in the nets. That said, they still will have difficulty getting their chances against a team still riding high from an early demolition of the Stingrays. Last week, the Warriors proved they could win without JP Uehlinger in the lineup. This week, assuming he's back, they'll be even more dangerous.
GAME 8: Blood Red (1-2) vs. Snake Eyes (0-2-1)
The Predict-O-Tron says:
RED 5.628, SNK 1.062
Shots: RED 30.924, SNK 13.107
The Snake Eyes entered the season as the team needing the most help to stay afloat in REC. Thus far, apart from a miracle tie against Puck U (which at this point is the anomaly of the season), they haven't received anything to show they can avoid relegation. Blood Red has proven themselves to be much stronger than they were last season, and this is just another example. Blood Red could surprise a few people in the playoffs.
GAME 9: Streetsharks (2-1) vs. 2 Jacks No Coke (1-2)
The Predict-O-Tron says:
STS 3.213, JNC 1.735
Shots: STS 22.174, JNC 14.181
Okay, at the beginning of the season based on last season's results, you would have guessed the Jacks to be 1.5 goal favorites. Thus far, though, the Jacks just haven't been able to find the target. Streetsharks, should they keep up the pace they have, may very well be a threat to win. Given how they played the previous season, a promotion threat from the Sharks? Love it.
SUMMARY:
License 2 Thrill (-1.5) Scabs
Puck U (-6) Funkmaster Redux
Greenback Boogies (-.5) Untouchables
Stingrays (PK) Five Minute Majors
Puck Buddies (-3.5) All Blacks
DC Pravdacudas (-1) Ducks
Babylon Warriors (-3.5) Moosassins
Blood Red (-4.5) Snake Eyes
Streetsharks (-1.5) Two Jacks No Coke
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