By Vegas Suds
Atlantic City Andy per his Predict-o-Tron 5000 (stats analysis) has the 5 Minute Major as 2-1 underdogs against the Snake Eyes this week. If you translate that into goals, then roughly Snake Eyes are about 2 to 2 1/2 goal favorites in this game. Assuming that the majority of both team's roster will be there, as someone who knows all the teams, I think this is where the numbers do not tell the story. I feel that 5 Minute Major has a real chance to win this game as the Snake Eyes play up or down to their competition and do not blow teams out. And to get 2-1 odds is "value investing" and something that should pay off in the long if you get this scenario every week. I would say take either 5 Minute Major at 2-1 odds to win outright OR take 5 Minute Major + 2 or 2 1/2 goals. I prefer the latter.
This is your Vegas Suds "Smart Insider Play" of the week.
Remember when you make picks, if you are right more then 55 percent of the time, you are breaking even. Anything over that, you are in the black (winning side). And if you are taking the money line, you have to be right less than 50 percent of the time to be a winner. This is something Jason Sticha that has no clue about as he keeps harping on the one Vegas Suds loss (Hawks to the Bruins in Stanley Cup) when he forgets about all the other Vegas Suds wins. A real analyst never rests his rep on one game but on his overall record in the long run as he finds weakness and flaws in the market of which he can take advantage. And when you do not pick favorites (most insiders do not) and pick bold upsets, you have to be right less often than half time to be a winner.
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