Andy's Week 5 Predictions

By Andy G.

The Predict-O-Tron 5000 (patent pending) has run through Bill James's log5 scenario using Pythagorean win percentage, plus Ken Pomeroy style numbers on pace with shots and goals to determine the probability of a win for one team or the other for each of the Week 5 games. (Either you understood that last sentence or you didn't. Don't worry about it.) If you disagree with its findings, win the game.

The numbers below pretend the game was simmed to a regulation conclusion 1,000 times.


NOON -- Funkmaster Redux vs The Untouchables
WINNER: Funkmaster 99.8%, Untouchables 0.2%
GOALS: Funkmaster 6.933, Untouchables 0.333
SHOTS: Funkmaster 43.249, Unoutchables 8.646

ANALYSIS: The Funks are a dangerous team when they dominate possession, as we saw against Blood Red. They should get that chance on Sunday, because as of now the Untouchables have been unable to show they have the staying power in PRO. In fact, in a division where the other teams are averaging 25.6 shots and 3.11 goals in a game, the Untouchables are at 9.5 shots and 0.75 goals. This will get ugly.

1 PM -- Babylon Warriors vs License to Thrill
WINNER: Warriors 77.7%, Thrill 22.3%
GOALS: Warriors 3.000, Trill 1.607
SHOTS: Warriors 25.624, Thrill 13.024

ANALYSIS: The Warriors have the stingiest defense and ball control, and there's no reason to believe it won't continue against L2T. The issue is if it doesn't, the Warriors are ripe for an upset, since their scoring defense has never been very good. Basically, any borderline shot they block, which leaves their keeper needing to make good saves or none at all. This can be exploited by a good team, but are the L2T that good team? I don't think they're quite there yet.

2 PM -- Blood Red vs. All Blacks
WINNER: Black 91.4%, Red 8.6%
GOALS: Black 5.200, Red 1.600
SHOTS: Black 29.714, Red 17.540

ANALYSIS: The Blacks play great defense, while the Reds don't. The big thing Blood Red has going for them is accuracy, as they are 2nd in Pro at scoring percentage. However, the Blacks have already shut down a scoring powerhouse this season in Puck Buddies, and they should have little trouble doing so on Sunday.

3 PM -- Moosassins vs. Scorpions
WINNER: Moosassins 50.5%, Scorpions 49.5%
GOALS: Moosassins 3.165, Scorpions 4.401
SHOTS: Moosassins 20.000, Scorpions 23.471

ANALYSIS: So, wait, the Scorpions have better goals and shots and they aren't favorites? This one, basically, is coming down to pace. The Scorpions are the most active Rec team with a combined 47.50 shots per game for pace. The Moosassins are closer to average, with a combined 39.00 shots per game. (Average is 42.50, by the way.) So one team will want to press the issue and the other will want to slow it down and frustrate. Whoever controls tempo will win. A great choice for TV.

6 PM -- Ducks vs. Puck Buddies
WINNER: Buddies 79.8%, Ducks 20.2%
GOALS: Buddies 3.000, Ducks 1.511
SHOTS: Buddies 28.148, Ducks 22.616

ANALYSIS: This seems weird on the surface: you have two teams, both on 8 points, both of whom are fighting for first place, and this is the gap? The Ducks have been doing their damage well, but their accuracy will be put to the test as they have never faced a defense and goaltender like the Buddies roll out. Advanced metrics say defense will win out, as the Ducks may be above average on offense, but the Buddies are playing world-class defense. The Ducks will need to defend to beat the Buddies, which is something they have done... but it doesn't appear like it'll be enough.

7 PM -- Streetsharks vs. Greenback Boogies
WINNER: Boogies 56.4%, Sharks 43.6%
GOALS: Boogies 4.875, Sharks 3.564
SHOTS: Boogies 22.129, Sharks 16.265

ANALYSIS: The two teams at the bottom of the Rec table are there for similar reasons -- bad defense. They're the only teams with save percentages below .800, and the analysis says they'll both be that way at the end of this game. Expect goals, and possibly a few softies as well. It's a relatively even matchup, and if form holds, whoever has possession last may well be crowned the winner.

8 PM -- 2 Jacks No Coke vs. Scabs
WINNER: Jacks 50.6%, Scabs 49.4%
GOALS: Jacks 2.893, Scabs 2.857
SHOTS: Jacks 25.076, Scabs 20.250

ANALYSIS: The Scabs are where they are today due to incredible goaltending. They're the only team with a save percentage above .900 in the Rec division. The Jacks aren't far behind, mind you, and the teams are 1 and 2 in scoring accuracy as well. This game is strength on strength up and down the lineup, and as we saw last week, neither team needs many shots to be competitive. Who will do just enough to get the points? Don't be surprised if this is a shootout game.

9 PM -- Snake Eyes vs. Five Minute Majors
WINNER: Snakes 66.2%, Majors 33.8%
GOALS: Snakes 2.489, Majors 1.778
SHOTS: Snakes 15.333, Majors 26.891

ANALYSIS: So the Snake Eyes rarely get shots on goal, and the Majors are about average in that department. In fact, the Majors have a positive shot difference, and the Snake Eyes a negative shot difference. The problem here is defense and goaltending. The Majors have been lit up hard this season, with the lowest save percentage of any Pro team, while the Snake Eyes have the #1 goaltender in the league by the computer MVP ratings and are third in save percentage. The Snake Eyes will have to make their shots count. Fortunately, that's not an uncommon occurrence against the Majors.

LET THE DEBATE BEGIN!